We’ve been talking extensively about expectations for this market from May into June and right now, it probably feels like watching grass grow.

Price is slowly grinding higher, nothing explosive yet.

But this is exactly why it’s worth stepping back and looking at prior cycle bottoms for context because what we’re seeing right now is not unusual at all.

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Over the last three months, the focus has been on timing this cycle correctly — and now we’ve entered the window where it all comes together. The late April → early May seasonal turn is here, and the conditions across crypto, equities, and on-chain are lining up exactly how you want to see them before a major move.

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In this video, I walk through why I believe we’re setting up for a major upside expansion into June, and why the current price action is being completely misinterpreted as weakness instead of what it actually is—late-stage ac…

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We also have a key inflection point on deck as we close out this week and head into the May window so we will take a look at just how that is shaping up within our game plan and Q2 outlook.

I also want to remind you of our new terminal we launched this week. Just a brief overview of what that looks like and where we are heading with it.

And finally we will go over our positions as well as some key reminders for how to think about the chaotic alt coin and meme coin market as the intensity picks up into May.

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This isn’t complex. It’s not indicator-heavy. But it’s something that, once you see it, completely changes how you read trend shifts.

Most traders wait for price confirmation. By the time they get it, the move is already well underway.

This is how you get ahead of that.

It’s a simple framework—but it’s one of the most powerful tools I use to identify when the market is about to transition, not after it already has.

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Most people think this has been a weak year for crypto. That’s a surface-level read.

What’s actually happened is far more important: the market has spent the last several months building structure, resetting positioning, and compressing in time while conditions quietly improve in the background.

We’ve been tracking this since January. Based on time, structure, and macro alignment.

And now, for the first time in five years, those three are starting to line up at the same time.

And that’s where the biggest asymmetric opportunities are created.

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The Ethereum Structure: Same Setup, Bigger Scale

Starting with a chart I shared back in January. Ethereum has a remarkably consistent structural pattern across cycles — the time ranges keep expanding, but the structure is identical.

Each parabolic move has been preceded by the same footprint: a cycle demand zone formed by a liquidity gap from the previous parabolic rally, then the next parabolic move. Here’s what’s telling — before each of the two previous major bull runs, ETH printed two major cycle corrections before going off to the races:

• 2016 cycle: a 61% crash, then a ~60% secondary crash, then liftoff

• 2020 cycle: a 66% crash, then a ~70% crash into the COVID bottom, then liftoff

• Today: a 66% crash, then a secondary 64% crash

Pattern wise, this is no different from the prior two structural moves. The only difference is that the entire cycle is getting bigger and longer.

Bitcoin Dominance: Late-Stage Rotation

Now let’s overlay Bitcoin Dominance against ETH in a few charts to look at the structural setup headed into this major cyclical rotation period.

The last cycle, BTC Dominance peaked, went through a ~52-week drawdown, then rallied into 70 weeks to a blow-off top. During that run, ETH traded absolutely nowhere for 43 weeks — today its in a similar pattern.

In the chart below, we're now 43 weeks off the BTC.D top and ETH has traded exactly flat the entire stretch. Same behavior we saw 43 weeks off the top of BTC.D last cycle — ETH sat flat before ripping into a major bull move.

Next looking at BTC.D (inverted in blue) in the same chart as ETH again highlighting the recent 43 week move in the red boxes to show the comparable setup. You can see ETH structure has been slowly forming that base while BTC.D went up and it was right around this time last cycle where BTC.D broke down and ETH went parabolic.

Finally, to paint the full picture look at this chart of BTC.D (blue) overlaid on the ETH/BTC chart. You see the pattern, big alligator jaws formation. Divergence begins forming (green lines) and the timing is nearly the exact same 51 weeks to the next major move up in ETH.

BTC Dominance topped, and ETH is now 43 weeks into the exact same pattern against bitcoin that preceded the major bull market in alts last cycle.

Dominance can absolutely make another run higher — we haven’t cleared this double top yet, and that could extend into later this year. But remember: last cycle, 43 weeks of flat ETH is exactly when alts started to move. By the time Dominance clearly tops, ETH had already run +300%. At this point, you don’t want to be in Bitcoin.

The Broader Macro Backdrop

This isn’t just a crypto setup. The conditions are showing up across risk assets. Something we initially wrote about in January but it’s time to see how those same conditions are shaping up.

Small Caps, Consumer Behavior, and ISM

To give us a brief picture of the overall economic backdrop at the moment lets take a look at the three charts that define risk appetite, consumer behavior, and business activity. IWM, JETS, and ISM

Each red level with orange corresponding bubble in the charts below marks the level and time at which a major risk on move in cryptos began.

As you can see in the previous two bubbles when IWM broke out of a multiyear consolidation, and JETS begins a strong move above the 23.50 level, and ISM gets to the 57 level in an uptrend all conditions are satisfied that signal risk appetite is turning up, consumers are spending, and the business cycle is gaining momentum which historically has translated into a boom in alt coins.

Below is a closer look at ETH corresponding to the ISM in an uptrend and at the 57 level.

Same pattern. ETH bottoms, the business cycle starts ticking up, you get a divergence, and then once ISM breaks out to a certain level — ETH takes off like a rocket ship. Both 2016 and 2020 faired similarly on this measure.

So again, all the conditions are setting in place. the ISM is not quite to where we typically see big moves yet but it looks promising and has only gotten stronger in the last 3 months.

ETH vs. Small Caps

In the below chart we have the RUT small cap index relative to SPY over ETH price. There have been three major breakouts in the RUT against spy in the last decade. Each one of those breakouts is shown in the orange bubble and corresponds to the same orange bubble on the ETH chart.

This current breakout is by far the biggest after coming off of a five year downtrend very similar to how alt coins have behaved in the last five years against BTC. Whats interesting is that the green lines on the ETH chart correspond to the same time of the green lines on the RUT/SPY chart. Both show how ETH traded flat from peak to breakout on RUT/SPY.

Back in January we pointed out that Ethereum was “the biggest liar in the market” — everything else was going up while ETH went down. The only other time we saw that divergence was during the 2016 move, which resolved with a massive reversion to the mean.

Why This Isn’t 2023

Here’s the key distinction most people are missing.

Yes, there are similarities to the 2023 bottom. We’ve already outlined the time factors and structural alignment. But in 2023, we did not have macro risk indicators breaking out. We did not have Bitcoin dominance in a late-stage rotation. That move happened without full confirmation.

This time is different.

Now you have structure, timing, and macro conditions all aligning at once. That’s the difference between a reflexive bounce and a true cycle low.

And when all three line up, the upside is not comparable.

The “Others” Chart: The 60-Week Cycle

Here’s where it gets really clean. “Others” — total crypto market cap excluding the top 10 — is essentially altcoin small caps.

There is an almost perfectly consistent 60-week cycle in this market. It doesn’t matter how you slice it:

• Major top to major bottom: 60 weeks

• Major bottom to major top: 60 weeks

• Regime change: every 60 weeks

You can measure nearly any significant point on this chart and the the regime flips just about every 60 weeks. We just completed a 60-week drawdown from the top to the bottom.

Here’s the key: when we have a major top-to-bottom 60-week down move like the one we just completed, the opposite move has been at least 90 weeks — often longer.

• 2016 bottom run: 109 weeks

• 2019 bottom run: 144 weeks

• 2023 bottom run: 101 weeks

Even being conservative, we’re looking at a 90-week run from here, which projects a top mid-to-late 2027. Obviously there will be pullbacks along the way, but the timing of this is irrefutable.

Zooming Out: The 45-Month + 60-Month + 90-Month Cycle Convergence

On the monthly timeframe, Others has proven to hold a very strong 45 month, 60 month, and 90 month cycle all throughout its history.

45 Months

This is something we have shown many times before but 45 months from a major turn has always marked a significant macro change in the market. We saw that exact 45 month time factor call the October flash crash low.

60 months

60 months is another very strong time cycle that has worked its power on this chart. 60 months is 5 years a cycle we are pounding the table on.

You have both a 60 month top to bottom cycle as well as a 60 month bottom to bottom cycle at work right now. That is all in confluence with the 45 month cycle.

90 month cycles

If 45 month cycle work then it only makes sense that the even bigger 90 month cycle would show up. And sure enough it shows up in all three phases below.

• 90 month bottom to top cycle

• 90 month bottom to bottom cycle. (this bottom gave us the 2023-24 run)

• 90 months from top to bottom exactly on the October 10 crash.

30 Month Bull Markets

If we have a major macro confluence happening right now between the 45, 60, and 90 month time factors then surely the 30 month cycle also shows up.

And sure enough the bull markets in this chart have lasted right on the 30 month mark.

But here’s the real setup. We have ALL 4 major high-timeframe cycles converging right now:

• A 30-month cycle from the last major bottom

• A 45-month cycle that has marked every major inflection point — 45 months to a major liquidation bottom, 45 months to a major top, 45 months to this current bottom

• A 60-month (5-year) cycle — altcoins are in a 5-year cycle, Bitcoin is in a 5-year cycle, and every 5 years is where we really shift into altcoins

• A 90-month cycle from the May 2018 top

When we get all cycles on a monthly time frame converging like this you can guarantee a major market shift is happening.

Historically the bull market moves that followed lasted 30 months. Using the 60-week cycle framework gets us to mid-to-late 2027 and using the monthly cycle framework suggest late 2027 early 2028 before the next major top.

We are in the very early innings after a 5 year drought in alts.

Stablecoin Dominance: Confirming the Bear Bottom

One more chart worth sharing to confirm this view is the USDT.D chart. This chart shows the market cap dominance of the largest stable coin issuer. When stables are up it signals a flight to safety, but when stables go down it signals a shift back into risk.

Right now we are breaking down out of the uptrend in this chart. You can see what the TOTAL3 market cap did each time this uptrend broke down. The result is a major move up. Stables just peaked near the 2022 bear market low levels.

You can see this relationship is directly inverse to what alt coins do.

What this tells us: the market did top in December 2024, and we’ve had a 14-month on-chain bear market. Most of us have felt that. But the cycle is rolling over.

The Setup, In Plain English

Let me pull it all together:

Structure is in place. ETH has consolidated sideways for 60 months — the same range it traded in 5 years ago. That’s a huge flat consolidation and the same structural setup we saw before the last two parabolic moves.

Conditions are in place. IWM breaking out of a 5-year base. ISM rolling up. Gold topping. Copper-Gold ratio bottoming. ETH divergences resolving. Stablecoin dominance breaking down. Broader risk backdrop mirroring an overlap between late 2016 and late 2020 conditions.

Timing is finally satisfied. 60 months of ETH consolidation. A 60-week down cycle in Others complete. Four high-timeframe cycles (30, 45-month, 60, and 90-month) converging for only the third time ever. (previous two were the 2021 top and the 2023 bottom)

And sentiment couldn’t be better. Nobody believes alt season happens again. Most people are strictly staying in BTC. Everyone is still mentally anchored to a “four-year cycle” that’s been obsolete since 2021.

Price Targets and Timeline

• ETH: $16,000 over the next 12–18 months (the 90-week cycle projection)

• Altcoin cycle top: mid-to-late 2027

• Path: not a straight shot — expect pullbacks — but the major trend is turning up for the first time in 3 years

The next 12–18 months are likely to deliver more than the last five years combined. This is a massive asymmetric opportunity and it’s setting up while nobody wants anything to do with crypto.

Final Thought

At a certain point, you have to make a decision.

Either you continue reacting to short-term noise like the majority of the market—or you start positioning around high timeframe structure, timing, and asymmetric setups like this one.

Everything I’ve laid out here is what I’m personally using to position for what I believe will be the next major phase of this cycle.

This is one of those moments where getting it right actually matters. And the last five years haven’t given us many of them. This is one.

The big takeaway: the behavior of this market is genuinely different now. We’ve ran up longer in time and further in price than the previous leg, and if the week closes as it stands now, we get something we haven’t seen since July 2025. While I still see people calling this a bear market rally the market continues to confirm otherwise.

In this one, I cover:

• Where I think Bitcoin and ETH can go from here, and the time window I’m watching into next week

• Why the meme and alt charts are flashing a much bigger signal than most people realize

• A few portfolio moves — what I’m adding, what I’m cutting, and where I’m still leaning

• The narratives I want to be positioned in for the second half of the year

• The two chart patterns I trust more than anything else

Plenty going on right now — you don’t have to wait for confirmation. Watch the windows, trust the patterns, and if you’re playing risk-on, learn to fish for yourselves. That’s the whole point of what we’re building here.

The updated watchlists are below

More next week.

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Part 2 is simple:

This is a major level—and it’s holding everywhere that matters.

Not just on the Bitcoin chart, but across every key intermarket relationship.

We’re sitting at the 50% retrace of the entire move.
Previous cycle hi…

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I’m going to walk through this step by step, but part 1 is simple:

The yearly low is in.

Not based on opinion. Not based on hope. Based on time, price, and conditions.

When you understand how …

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We have been sizing up the risk on trade for the last 60 days and with the major bitcoin low this week confirming right in our time window I expect a strong continuation of this move with people only beginning to chase these setups we have outlined.

We are now seeing very strong indications from alt coin leaders as to whats coming and by time we reach the tail end of the risk curve we will be light years ahead of the crowd.

This update I’m covering the development of our game plan and going over all the setups in both of our portfolios to show you why this is a major moment in time for the market.

By time most realize what is happening in a few weeks it will be far too late for positioning. This is where all the hard work and patience proves that it does not take a long time to make a lot of money, it only takes a long time to get ready for it.

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We are now entering the most important time window of the year.

Not approaching it.

Entering it.

Since December, I’ve been laying out the roadmap for Q2—April, May, June—as the phase that would dictate everything that follows. And now the time is here. Not one or two… but clusters of major time factors stacking on top of each other.

These are the kind of moves that can define and entire year in one quarter.

And those turns don’t come gradually—they come through sharp reversals, failed moves, and aggressive rotations that leave most people on the wrong side.

If you don’t understand the timing behind those shifts, you won’t be able to navigate this quarter effectively

You’ll react to it and by then the news will already be priced in.

Below is the exact Q2 timing roadmap—every key date, every major window, and how I expect this to unfold.

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One thing is very clear to me, right now the market is completely split. Everyone is uncertain, nobody wants to take risk, and the dominant view is that things still need to go lower and the war will drag on much longer.

But under the surface, our data and the market data is telling a different story. Positioning is shifting to risk, large players are getting long, and we’re hitting a cluster of major time windows while the market is due for a big move.

Most people are going to miss this because they’re waiting for clarity that won’t come until price is much higher. But when the market refuses to go lower on bad news and nobody is positioned for upside, that’s usually the tell. This is the type of environment where major moves start, and we are seeing that behavior reflected in the price action. It’s a classic instance of watching what is doing well versus what you think should be doing well.

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It challenges many of the most widely accepted macro assumptions of the last decade — and it does so based on structural intermarket evidence, not opinion.

This piece is not contrarian for the sake of being contrarian, this is a macro framework based on a fundamental conditional alignment with key relationships between markets. This is an extremely important point to understand for any long term investor and will show you why the consensus view point is potentially deeply flawed.

What is forming right now is a rare macro alignment between gold, the dollar, interest rates, and equities. This is not a short-term trade setup. It is not a call for next week or next month. It is a structural condition that has only appeared a handful of times in market history. Each prior instance marked the end of one major macro regime and the beginning of another.

The dominant view today is clear: currency debasement is permanent, hard assets will outperform, stocks are in a bubble and the financial system is in slow-motion decline.

But when you step away from headlines and examine the actual asset relationships beneath the surface — stocks relative to gold, gold relative to real rates, the dollar relative to liquidity — the data tells a very different story.

This is not contrarianism for the sake of being different. It is a serious examination of market structure that suggests the consensus trade may be closer to completion than continuation.

And if this rotation resolves the way it has in prior cycles, the implications for long-term wealth creation will be enormous.

The Dollar Is Reinventing Itself Not Falling Apart

If this macro shift is forming, it won’t begin with headlines. It will show up in relative strength relationships. And that means we start by looking at the dollar, not as a political symbol, but as a benchmark of global capital flows.

The widely accepted assumption is:

dollar down = risk assets up

and dollar up = bad for risk assets.

But a simple review of the dollar verses the DOW will immediately tell you, that is not true.

The arrows on the DJI above directly correspond to the major highs and lows in the DXY. It is clear that bottoms in the dollar coincide with bottoms in the DJI. As where tops in the dollar are more ambiguous with no clear correlation to tops in the DJI.

There is no evidence in this chart to support the idea that a weaker dollar is good for risk assets and equities. In fact it would be quite the contrary where bull markets in the dollar coincide with big upswings in the DJI.

So what then is the real driver of a weak and strong dollar?

For that we have to look at Gold versus the dollar.

When gold is up the dollar is down and when gold is down the dollar is up.

This is a much tighter inverse relationship than the dollar versus stocks or risk assets like BTC. Take a moment to see this in the chart.

So if gold has been in a 10 year bull market and the dollar has been losing ground to gold since the 2021 top. What then, are other assumptions that could be wrong?

How about the fact that everyone is calling for the collapse of the dollar, while simultaneously predicting a huge continuation of the gold bull market up to 10k per ounce.

While yes, these could both be true if that were to happen, the reality is that this trade has become way too overcrowded at what has already been a 10-20 year bull market in gold returns.

Remarkably, these same conditions were present in both 1980 and 2008, the other two moments when gold marked major secular tops and both equities and the dollar carved out significant lows.

In each instance, sentiment was overwhelmingly one-sided. The consensus was fixated on debasement, inflation fears were elevated, and the belief in endless hard-asset outperformance felt unquestionable, much like it does today.

Yet, if we step back and take an objective look at the chart of the DXY, you can see it’s doing the same pattern it has done since the 2008 lows.

In both prior instances, the dollar had two significant peaks followed by a drop down to the range lows and a sweep of support at previous range highs. That’s exactly the same pattern its in today.

But how could this possibly be that the dollar is not actually going to hell and the global regime isn’t shifting? They told us we are in a currency debasement crisis and the US is losing global superpower status.

Well to answer that theres a lot we have to consider. For starters I want to share this Economist cover from last month.

This is very interesting depiction of the dollar as a snake to say the least. Many of you are probably aware of the magazine cover trading theory but here we can go a bit deeper into the symbolism.

Just last month we saw the Chinese new year bring an end to the year of the snake. But the real symbolism behind the snake year ending is that snakes shed their skin.

In other words when the snake year ends, the idea is that you are supposed to evolve to a better form by shedding off your old skin, metaphorically speaking. So is it just a coincidence that they decided to use this cover? I think not.

Before we look any further into the current situation let’s remind ourselves that the US has reinvented itself many times over throughout its history in a great 80 year cycle.

Beginning with the revolution in 1780, then the Civil War in the 1860s, followed by World War 2 in the 1940’s, which brings us to today in the 2020s.

This is why the US can remain a dominate super power for decades to come because unlike many empires of the past the US has shown a unique ability to evolve.

This could not be more apparent than if we look at the global restructuring we have seen in the last two months with the US seizing control of Venezuelan oil, threatening to take over Greenland, threatening Cuba, and ultimately trying to wrestle and reign in Iran, there is one clear theme going on and that is the struggle to secure massive amounts of natural resources that will be needed to build out the ai revolution.

From oil and rare earth minerals to critical shipping routes and transportation lanes, this broader tariff strategy and overall aggression is about far more than trade balances — it is about leverage and keeping the USD on top.

The US once weaponized the dollar through direct sanctions, that was the old model. Now the strategy is evolving. Instead of targeting countries outright, control is shifting toward strategic chokepoints in energy, critical resources, and most importantly, compute.

The leverage is no longer just exclusion from the system, but control over access to the infrastructure that powers global trade and the AI revolution.

The message is clear, if you want entry into global markets, if you want access to the compute layer defining the next technological era, you operate inside the dollar framework. It’s the same reason the US has to be the global super power in crypto because they are aiming to keep the world on a USD (stablecoin) system.

USD dominance isn’t being imposed the same way anymore instead its reinventing itself. It’s being engineered through control of the inputs that matter most.

The DXY is not failing, but rather shedding its old skin and reinventing itself for a new era of American power.

But the dollar alone doesn’t tell the full story. Its movements only make sense when viewed against the asset it has historically competed with for monetary supremacy: gold. If the dollar is repositioning, gold will be the confirming variable.

Gold Is the Macro Indicator

Gold is the ultimate piece to this puzzle we are putting together. We already covered how the DXY does not in fact tell you much about the stock market regimes but is instead a much better counter to gold regimes.

That said, there are also many false assumptions about GOLD, what it is, and how it moves markets.

The mainstream thinking is that gold is bad, whenever its in a bull market that means a crisis is brewing, wars, currency collapse etc etc. Now, I’m not saying it doesn’t go up when wars or crises happen but it is not the root cause of gold going up.

Again, a simple observation will show you that the prevailing narratives around gold are just not true.

Gold has had three major bull markets in its history if you include today’s bull market. The previous two bull markets lasted around 120 months which puts today’s gold market squarely into that time factor. Will this be a top? We don’t know yet, but the cycles suggest its closer to the end than the beginning.

Taking our time analysis a bit further and looking at the time it took gold to top, from the time it broke out of the green consolidation boxes in the image below, and you will see we are again in a late stage time frame.

In the first two cases, it was 23 months and 34 months respectively. The average of those two times is exactly 28.5 months which is exactly where we are now…

Finally, you will note that gold had a 27 year range after the 1980 top and now has been in a 27 year bull market off the 1999 bottom. Quite the confluence of 27 to 28 time cycles coming together.

But if gold is approaching a major top, what then, does this tell us about the overall market cycles?

Well, as I said before, most people have been misled about the role of gold and nothing makes that more apparent than looking below at the chart of the DJI index over the chart of gold.

When we do this, we get a very clear picture just like the dollar relationship, that when gold is in a big bull market stocks effectively go no where. And conversely, when gold tops stocks begin huge bull markets (after an initial correction phase).

But even this image is not enough to understand whats going on here. Because on the surface, this has been the correct viewpoint up until now as you can see the 2018 bottom in gold where stocks have also gone up…or have they?

This is an important distinction we will cover later in this article when we review equity performance relative to gold.

But for now its enough to see that major tops in gold actually start major bull markets in stocks (after an initial pull back) which is not what people have been led to believe.

Said another way, gold going parabolic actually signals that we are getting closer to a new secular bull market in stocks.

But why is that the case?

Well, if we think about what gold really is, and who holds it, it may become more clear.

Gold is the largest single asset in the world at a market cap of over 30 trillion dollars. For reference the entire market capitalization of all US stocks is around 50 trillion dollars.

So let’s think about why thats so important and why it actually enables the major macro regime shifts that last 20+ years.

Who is the largest holder of Gold in the world? It’s central banks.

So who benefits the most when the price of gold goes on a 10 or 20 year bull run? The central governments.

So while everyone in crypto thinks the government should have BTC as a store of value, the reality is that they already carry the most gold in the world and when gold outperforms everything the way it has they actually get much wealthier in real terms even if it doesn’t appear so in nominal debt terms.

So the smoke screen is that the government has the ability to devalue their own currency while simultaneously holding the one asset they need to maintain wealth in REAL terms.

So could it be the case, that even though debt skyrockets in dollar terms they are knowingly holding the one instrument they need to keep pace with it? It would appear so.

Which is why, when the ultra wealthy gold holders have secured decades worth of real value capture while dangling the nominal value thinking in front of everyone else, they can then open the spigots for real returns to catch up to gold returns for decades at a time.

Understanding gold’s cycle is critical because it dictates where real returns reside. And that brings us to the most misunderstood part of this entire framework — the difference between nominal gains and real wealth creation in equities.

The Illusion of Nominal Wealth

Before I dive into this section lets just be clear that everyone sees how I’m defining real and nominal returns.

The generally accepted economic view is that real returns are returns adjusted for inflation. In other words if you have a 5% return and inflation is 2% the real return is 5%-2%= 3%.

Nominal returns are returns not adjusted for inflation. So a 5% return is a 5% return without accounting for any inflation.

However, for the purposes of this article real returns are going to be considered returns adjusted for gold as a store of value.

In other words if gold is the store of value and not USD wouldn’t you want to know if you are getting richer in gold adjusted terms rather than dollar denominated terms? Because if your assets aren’t appreciating against gold then the logical answer would be to just own gold…

So lets dive in.

On the surface it would appear that stocks have been in a great bull market since the 2009 bottom.

But upon further review we may see why that is all just a smoke screen to whats really going on under the hood.

Looking at the below chart of the Dow Jones industrial average going back to 1880s we can see that there have only been four secular bull markets in history. Each of these bull markets was preceded by a decade long consolidation.

So right off the bat we can tell something is off about this structure because isn’t everyone under the impression that 2008 was a great bubble? Thats not at all what the chart actually says. Of course some sectors like housing may have had a moment, but the reality is that it was clearly not an asset bubble as indicated by the charts.

How can we confirm this? Well again, by looking at gold performance against equity performance the intermarket relationships become quite clear. Each colored box below on gold reflects its same colored box on the DJI.

Each one of these long sideways periods in the stock market coincided exactly with major bull markets in gold. When gold topped, secular bull markets of REAL returns began in equities. We’ve already proved this.

So now lets turn our focus to the actual chart of the DJI index paired against gold and this relationship becomes even more startling.

There is a lot we can take away from this chart so lets go through the observations

1. There have only been 4 times in history where equities have truly outpaced gold on a macro scale. Late 1920’s. 1932-1966. 1980-2001. 2011-2018.

2. Equities valuations have never come close to passing their 2000’s high relative to gold and in fact topped out against gold in 2017/18 or nearly a decade ago…

3. This is a 3 month chart and we are now in historically oversold levels relative to gold that has only been seen three other times in history.

4. Each of these times was a massive bear market bottom in equities which ushered in a macro top in Gold and a macro bottom in real equity returns.

It’s very important to understand whats going on here. Not only is gold at conditional levels for a major macro top, but at the same time equities are at conditional levels for a macro bottom on a relative basis. Now as you can see by the chart this is typically a 18-24 month process. Which means we should see this massive rotation beginning to play out now through 2027.

The key eye opener, is that if you start measuring real returns in assets against a true store of value like gold instead of in nominal terms like USD denominated inflation. You see that we have been in a near 10 year bear market of real returns in stocks. Pretty shocking.

The takeaway is very clear, unless you own the correct stocks on a 10-20 year basis like NVDA or META (to name a couple stocks of the very few that outperformed gold), when gold is in a macro bull market you should only own gold because real returns in other assets get crushed.

The opposite is also true, that when gold enters a macro top you want to be back in equities because thats where the true wealth gets built.

This is a lot to digest and I personally find it very eye opening and contrary to what everyone is taught to believe about gold and real returns from mainstream economics.

Gold is THE store of value and only real returns happen in gold during these periods where nominal returns happen in stocks with few exceptions. When this macro regime shifts as its only done less than a handful of times in history, then you want to own equities for real returns.

This is hard to believe since everyone thinks we have been in a major equities bull market, which we have…in nominal terms, but against real value? It’s clear we have not, at least since 2018.

I find a good analogy would be looking at the stock exchange of Zimbabwe or the price of bitcoin in Argentine pesos and concluding that everyone must be rich in those countries. However, if you paired those same markets against gold you would see a much different picture and the true reality of the situation.

Bitcoin in Real Terms

If gold is the true store of value benchmark, then equities are not the only asset that must be examined through that lens. The same logic must be applied to bitcoin — particularly if it aspires to compete as a monetary asset.

We talked the other week about how bitcoin can act as a store of value and what that may mean for the future of it.

But here let’s look at the real return of bitcoin relative to gold which appears to be the default SOV.

Again, several key takeaways from this chart but the first being the fact that BTC is flat against gold since its 2017 top. Not exactly the 10 year bear structure stock indexes have faced but it also hasn’t gone anywhere over that time period.

In other words, it’s not keeping pace with gold, but at the same time, it is doing better than stocks.

The other thing to note is that just like stocks, BTC is in a historically oversold level against gold while also matching a cyclical time factor for a low.

We now have multiple asset classes sitting at historically oversold levels relative to gold, while gold itself is stretched into historically overbought territory — yet the consensus insists it is headed dramatically higher on the back of money printing and a commodity supercycle narrative. The data suggests the opposite.

When every major asset is historically oversold against gold while gold is extended to extremes, the higher-probability outcome is not an endless continuation of the gold bull market, but the late stage of it — a macro topping process that sets the stage for a broad real bull run across risk assets. That may not be the popular view, but it is what the intermarket conditions are implying.

Real Rates and the Liquidity Pivot

So far we’ve examined relative value between assets. But there is one variable that determines when liquidity shifts between them: real interest rates. This is the pivot point that turns gold regimes into equity regimes — and vice versa.

Since 2022 everyone has become an expert on what the fed needs to do and what rates should be at. But lets look at what this relationship between gold and rates has signaled in the past.

Historically, when real rates are below 2% gold is where the money stays because why be in bonds when you can get a better real return on your gold?

Let’s look at this in the chart below and the relationship couldn’t be more clear. Each green arrow corresponds to each green arrow in all three charts and the same for each red arrow.

What you see is that during the period of the 80s and 90s rates were going down but ABOVE 2%. This corresponded exactly to a 27 year gold bear market and a 27 year real return bull market in equities. The key is that real rates were ABOVE 2% while going down.

Then everything changed in 2000 when real rates fell below 2% and kept declining. The bond market could no longer keep pace with gold returns. Gold began a massive bull market and stocks returns collapsed against gold.

Then you can see from 2011 to 2018 real rates began to rise again and stocks outperformed gold while gold fell quiet. Then in 2018 it stopped. Real rates fell off again while under 2% and gold resumed to a bull market while stocks have been losing the battle ever since.

You can even see the exact U shape move on rates from 2020 to 2022 corresponded exactly to the U shape move on the DOW against gold. But as soon as real rates stopped rising in 2022 and were still below 2% gold took control and has been in the drivers seat ever since.

The Ultimate Test

In no way can we complete this study without an in depth look at the 1970’s which we’re characterized by rising rates, rising inflation, rising gold prices, and stagnant stock prices.

At first look this would seem to derail our above data but when we take a closer look at what really went down we will see the relationships did exactly the same thing.

The below chart show the relationship between the US 10yr bonds, gold, and then DJI versus gold.

You can clearly see that from 1970 to 1974 rates were rising but real yields were still falling as inflation ramped up. So according to our view real rates declining while under 2% means gold outperforms. Sure enough thats exactly what happened. Gold went up while the DJI went no where and ultimately declined relative to gold.

Then in 1974 what happened? Real rates bottomed and began to rise as inflation peaked during the 1974 oil crisis. As real rates climbed for the next two years, gold declined over the same period while stocks went up.

Then again in 1976 real rates peaked, causing gold to bottom, and stocks underperform for the rest of the decade.

Then as inflation collapsed into the 80’s while rates were still rising, real yields rose and gold made a major peak while stocks hit a major low and began a real secular bull market.

Now Gann called the 50 year cycle the great cycle as it was the culmination of five 10 year cycles. 50 years ago was yes, the 1970s.

So is it any coincidence we find ourselves in a very similar situation today? Trouble with Iran causing an oil crisis, leading to higher inflation, forcing the fed to raise rates, all while gold appears to be in a topping scenario and stocks are massively oversold versus gold?

If these are in fact the conditions, which they do appear to be, then is it a stretch to consider a scenario in stocks like we saw in the 70s with a 2 year lag?

Oil crisis leading to higher inflation this year causes rates to rise leading to a huge bottom in stocks which results in a big move up into 2028 while gold has peaks in 2026 and underperforms. Then the real reckoning happens from 2028 to 2032 and from the 2030s on stocks go into a massive secular bull for 20+ years.

The conditions are eerily similar but only time will tell. What we do know is what to expect when these relationships do turn a corner.

The Verdict

The mainstream economic theory says low rates are good for business and good for stocks.

But once again, a simple observation of the actual intermarket relationships suggests otherwise. Gold has consistently been the preferred asset in low-rate environments, and that only tends to change when real rates begin rising meaningfully or move above roughly 2%. In other words, the issue is not simply whether rates are falling or rising in nominal terms. What matters is whether the bond market is offering a real return strong enough to compete with gold.

That makes perfect sense if you stop thinking about gold as a crisis asset and start thinking about it as the global liquidity engine.

When gold is outperforming real yields, it functions like a vacuum for liquidity. Large pools of capital know they cannot earn durable real returns elsewhere, so capital concentrates in gold. That is why gold bull markets are so powerful and so persistent. They are not just emotional reactions to fear. They are structural periods where liquidity has nowhere better to go.

That dynamic only changes once rates rise enough to restore competition. When real rates move high enough, particularly above that 2% threshold, capital can begin flowing back into bonds. And from there, it can ultimately spill back into equities. That is the real pivot. Not lower rates helping risk assets, but higher real rates pulling liquidity out of gold and redistributing it across the financial system.

So where is the misunderstanding?

The popular assumption is that stocks and crypto should perform best when rates are falling. But the historical relationships do not support that view. Lower rates may sound supportive on the surface, but if they also allow inflation to stay elevated or reaccelerate, then real returns in bonds remain too weak to challenge gold. In that environment, liquidity stays trapped in the gold regime.

That is why the real pro-business backdrop is not simply lower rates. It is higher real rates paired with contained inflation. That is the condition that allows liquidity to leave gold, move into bonds, and eventually expand outward into equities and other productive assets.

This is also why a major policy mistake may be forming. Trump has now installed a new Fed chair who appears committed to cutting rates, but that may prove to be exactly the wrong move at the wrong time. If rate cuts arrive into 2027 and inflation begins rising again, the market may start discounting that outcome well in advance. The result could be a selloff driven not by tight policy, but by the realization that easy policy is preventing real yields from becoming competitive.

In that scenario, bonds still do not offer enough real return, gold retains liquidity dominance, and the broader rotation into productive assets gets delayed.

That, in my view, is the real macro pivot to watch into 2027 and 2028.

And it is all right there in the intermarket relationships above.

When Gold Tops, Regimes Change

When you connect the dollar, gold, equities, bitcoin, and real rates, a single relationship sits at the center of everything.

Gold is the fulcrum of the system, and real interest rates are the force that tips it.

I have tried to punch holes in many ways in this framework but there’s simply no denying it. The main argument is that stocks still go up and people have gotten richer since 2000 but thats just not true.

This is extremely important to understand if you are a long term investor in a retirement account or any vestment period that is longer than 10+ years.

At the 2002 low the SPX traded at 729 today it trades at roughly 7,000 or a 811% gain in 24 years. Gold on the other hand, had you bought that at the 2001 lows, is up 2,100% in 24 years to $5,500.

A $100,000 dollar investment in the SPX would give you $811,000 today. A $100,000 dollar investment in gold would be worth $2,100,000 in the same time period. A $1.2 million dollar difference.

You think that might be important to know if you are 25 year old college graduate and putting all your money into the indexes every month? It’s clear, it makes all the difference in the world.

So as long term investors think they are safe just throwing money at the SPX every two weeks they have been taking in the shorts for 20 years without even knowing it. On paper they are up, but in real terms, against real value? they are down over 50% in two decades. Thats a big deal.

Even in the last 10 years, unless you owned the Mag 7, you have been getting smoked by gold.

The verdict is clear,

When gold enters a secular bull market, real returns across financial assets compress. Liquidity gravitates toward the monetary asset that cannot be diluted. Nominal gains may appear impressive, but when measured against gold, wealth creation stalls. That is the environment we have largely been in since 2018 if not since 2001.

However, this is not the time to panic and rush into gold. As demonstrated above it would be more likely at this point in time that this major 20 year bull market is coming to a close sooner than most gold bugs will realize

and the implications of that are enormous,

when real rates rise, gold tops — not temporarily, not cyclically, but structurally — and liquidity begins to rotate. The bond market becomes competitive again. Capital flows outward from the monetary reserve asset and back into productive risk assets. That is when true secular equity expansions begin.

This has only happened a handful of times in modern financial history. The late 1920s. The post-1932 expansion. and then again in the 1980s. Each marked the end of a gold regime and the beginning of a multi-decade wealth cycle in equities.

Right now, gold is extended on long-duration time cycles. Equities and bitcoin are historically compressed relative to it. All while real rates are at a pivot threshold that has previously marked major transitions.

This is not about being bullish or bearish next quarter. It is about recognizing that we may be in the late stage of a monetary-dominant cycle and on the verge of a productive capital cycle.

If gold is completing its secular move, then what follows is not another nominal bounce. It is the potential beginning of a real bull market that we haven’t seen in over 20 years — one measured not in weeks, but in decades.

That shift will not happen overnight. It is a process. Gold will top in a long distribution phase after a 10 year run. Equity bases will be forming. The dollar is reinventing itself and liquidity rotates gradually before it accelerates.

This is all what I see coming in the next 18-24 months. A potential policy error by the fed, a sell off in stocks, higher rates, a top forming in gold, and ultimately a new and real bull market beginning in equities and lasting long into the 2030’s and 40’s.

The decennial pattern of this century has been clear 2008-2010 was a rough period 2018-2020 was rough and that setup is emerging again in 2028-2030 as this massive macro rotation takes place. That doesn’t mean we wont see a big move up in stocks before then but it does suggest a big reset button is coming.

Then, when the rotation completes, the opportunity is asymmetric.

The last decade may have been a smoke screen — nominal highs masking real stagnation. The next decade, if this framework is correct, could look very different.

Because when gold releases its grip on global liquidity, capital does not disappear.

It flows.

And where it flows next will define the next 10 to 20 years.

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In fact, for our Founding Members this time factor isn’t new at all. We first began discussing its potential significance nearly a year ago, and it became a central part of the roadmap we laid out in December’s annual outlook.

Now that we are moving deeper into March, the market is rapidly approaching that window — and with each passing day the evidence continues to build that something significant is developing beneath the surface.

When multiple time factors begin to cluster together like this, history shows that the result is rarely subtle. These types of alignments tend to precede major pivots in the market, the kind that only become obvious after the move has already taken place.

That’s exactly what I want to focus on today.

As we move into the second half of March, I want to walk through the mounting evidence behind this window. We’ll start with the seasonal timing currently unfolding, then move into early April where a number of powerful time relationships begin to converge.

Taken together, these signals suggest that the market may be approaching a moment that could ultimately be remembered as a major turning point in this cycle.

With several tight windows compressing over the next three months, volatility is almost certain to explode. And unless you know the specific dates and structures to watch, navigating this period could become an emotional and confusing experience for many investors.

Fortunately, the market tends to leave clues long before these events unfold.

And right now, those clues are pointing directly at the weeks ahead.

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The Late March Pressure Window

As you know, we initially forecasted the week of March 16th in our annual outlook as one of the key weeks of the year.

Now that we’ve arrived in this window, it’s worth zooming in to examine why this period may be so important — and what it could mean as we move into April and May.

I covered many of the reasons for this window in the March 1 outlook, so rather than repeating everything, I want to focus today on one of the most powerful concepts in time analysis: the squaring of time and price.

Let’s start with the March 13, 2024 top, which came in at 73,808. Sunday, March 22nd will mark 738 days from that date.

In other words, price becomes time.

We can also square the range from the August 2024 bottom to the January 2025 top. That range measured 59,960 points — essentially 60,000.

Projecting that forward 600 days brings us directly to March 28th. Notably, 600 days itself is a recognized pressure date.

Next, we can square the range from the January 2025 top to the April 2025 low. That decline measured 34,918 points, which translates into a 349-day time window, landing again around March 22nd.

Finally, just to demonstrate how powerful this concept can be, let’s go back and square the decline from the March 2024 top to the August 2024 low.

That drop measured 24,457 points. Rounded to 245 days, it lands on the exact date of the April 2025 bottom.

Pretty powerful stuff.

Individually these signals would be interesting. But when they begin appearing together like this, the implications become much more significant

A Rare Confluence of Time and Price

In the years I’ve been studying this markets, I’ve rarely seen such a strong confluence between time and price relationships.

Taken together, the entire annual cycle from March 2024 through April 2025 appears to be pointing directly at this late March / early April window as a moment of major importance.

It’s also worth revisiting a few key points from our annual report.

When we examine the month of March historically, several important patterns emerge:

• March is the first month with a monthly time factor that has produced a major low

• The 60-day, 60-week, and 60-month cycles all appear to play an important role in this market

• And notably, four out of the five time factors in this study produced lows, meaning the major probabilities suggest a low.

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The Case for a Major April Low

Initially, I believed the November low might mark the bottom. That was the basis of my earlier outlook.

Clearly, that didn’t play out.

But that’s part of the process. Since then, I’ve been hesitant to call another bottom because we simply hadn’t seen a strong enough time window to support it.

Until now.

When we examine the major five-year cycles, each major top since 2013 has produced a major market bottom 60 months later.

If we measure from the first major top in 2021, we arrive directly at April of this year as the first major candidate for a serious bottom.

Gann’s Campaign Rule Is Now in Play

We also have one of Gann’s most important rules working in the background here.

He wrote:

“Bull or bear campaigns do not run more than 3 to 3½ years without a move of 3 to 6 months or one year in the opposite direction.”

Bitcoin rallied for 35 months, just one month short of the full three years.

Since then, the market has declined for six consecutive months, which brings us to April as the seventh month — a number Gann often referred to as the fatal number in cycle structures.

The Historical Pattern Behind This Window

When we step back and examine the broader historical cycles, the pattern becomes even more interesting.

In 2021, a major countertrend rally began in April and ran strongly into June after six consecutive green months.

In 2016, we also saw a powerful three-month cyclical move from April into June.

And again in 2011, a major low formed in April before launching a strong rally through early summer

So what do we see?

One cycle shows a massive countertrend rally after six months of strength — which mirrors the inverse of our current setup — while the other two cycles show a very strong bullish period beginning in April.

Taken together, the cyclical probabilities point toward the same conclusion which is a countertrend rally/bullish period.

The Powerful 180-Degree Time Factor

Finally, all of this will coincide with one of the most powerful timing tools Gann ever discovered: the 180-degree time factor.

This concept has been instrumental in our work.

Notice how the last several pressure dates marked a reversal lower. A major signal of a trend change would occur if this late March / early April time factor produces a reversal higher off a low, rather than another move lower.

There’s also an important rule regarding double tops.

When measuring time from a double top, the correct approach is to measure from the midpoint between the two tops.

Using that method, the 180-day window has already appeared — and it did in fact produce a low and reversal in March.

How This Pattern Has Repeated

To understand how powerful this time factor has been, we can look back at recent examples.

In 2024, measuring 180 days from the midpoint of the March–April double top produced a higher low.

In 2023, performing the same calculation produced another important higher low.

Even during the 2021 bear market, the 180-degree date marked a major swing low and reversal.

In other words, these dates consistently matter.

The Pattern Within This Cycle

Another interesting observation is that these 180-degree cycles tend to balance out within the year.

In our current cycle, they appear repeatedly around September–October and again around March–April, which is obvious considering they are roughly six months apart.

When we expand the analysis further:

• 180 weeks ago from April would mark the 2022 bear market bottom

• 180 months ago would land in April 2011, which also produced a major market low

The pattern continues to repeat across multiple timeframes.

And if we look at the behavior of the market since 2023, each March–April window has produced a double move and reversal.

So the question becomes:

What are the odds we see one more low inside this window that forms a major bottom?

In my view, they are very high.

The Coming Inflection Point

When we step back and look at the entire picture — the squaring of time and price, the long-term cycles, the historical patterns, and the powerful 180-degree relationships — it becomes very difficult to ignore what the market is telling us.

April stands out as one of the strongest candidates for a major reversal that we have seen in quite some time.

Since the November low failed to hold, we have not seen a time factor with enough evidence to confidently suggest a major turning point. But this window is different. The amount of cyclical pressure building into late March and early April is unlike anything we’ve seen over the past six months.

At the same time, the market has endured six months of relentless selling pressure with almost no relief. Sentiment is extremely negative, the macro backdrop is filled with fear, and most investors are preparing for the worst.

Time and again the market has shown that when these time relationships begin to converge, something important is about to happen.

That doesn’t mean the path will be easy. We could very well see one final wave of panic, perhaps driven by negative headlines or another sharp shakeout.

But if the structure continues to unfold the way it appears to be setting up, that move would likely mark the final low of this decline, followed by a powerful reversal.

In other words, the pressure that has been building for months is about to resolve.

And if the analysis is correct, the next move will catch a lot of people off guard.

The way we have been tracking the market into this time factor suggests we are now approaching a major pivot window.

Across multiple charts we’re seeing the same pattern emerge: major 90-day cycle pressure dates converging into a single window that falls right into a seasonal turning point for the market.

This is a setup we first began mapping out in December, and then refined in early February.

Now the window we’ve been preparing for is arriving.

In this report I’m going to walk through:

• The time factors now triggering across the market
• Why they suggest a major inflection point is approaching
• And the 8 memecoin setups I believe have the most asymmetric upside right now

These are the types of structures that historically produce 10x–100x moves when liquidity returns to the market.

If this cycle continues to track the way it has so far, the next phase could begin very quickly.

As the saying goes:

It doesn’t take a lot of time to make a lot of money.
It takes a lot of time to get ready for it.

We’ve spent the last several months preparing for this window.

Now it’s time to execute the system.

Below I’ll walk through the exact time factors triggering this window and the 8 setups I believe have the highest asymmetric upside right now.

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The days of buying and holding Bitcoin for outsized exponential returns may be coming to an end.

For the last decade and a half Bitcoin holders have worked tirelessly to position BTC as the most pristine asset in the world. Digital gold. Store of value. Immutable monetary reserve. On that front they have largely succeeded.

Bitcoin now has ETFs. Institutional custody. Sovereign adoption. Public company treasuries. It has legitimacy.

But before we decide what that means for returns we need to step back and ask a more important question.

What actually happens to assets that become stores of value?

To answer that we start with gold.

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What Store of Value Actually Looks Like

Gold has very clear historical behavior. It does not compound steadily like a productive asset. It experiences powerful decade long bull markets during monetary stress or inflationary regimes and then it goes dormant for extended periods of time.

Sometimes for decades.

The chart below highlights this. The red boxes cover the bull markets and the green boxes show the long consolidation periods. You can see these macro regimes tend to last decades.

That is not a flaw. That is exactly what a store of value is supposed to do. It preserves purchasing power over long time horizons. But if your time horizon is less than ten to twenty years you can easily find yourself going nowhere.

The same can be said for real estate or fine art. There are periods of dramatic outperformance followed by long stretches of stagnation relative to more productive assets.

Gold does not compound like a productive asset. It preserves and surges during monetary stress and then it goes dormant for years, sometimes decades.

That raises the critical distinction:

If gold preserves value…
What creates value?

For that, we look at equities.

Preservation vs Production

Historically gold has served as a hedge against monetary instability and inflation. It is inert. It does not generate cash flow. It does not produce goods or services.

Equities on the other hand represent productive enterprises. Companies generate revenue. They build infrastructure. They create technology. They employ capital and labor to expand output.

That is where long term compounding lives.

Now apply that same framework to crypto.

If Bitcoin is digital gold then what are Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and other major Layer 1 networks?

They are not monetary reserves. They are infrastructure.

These networks generate fees. They secure transactions. They power applications. They enable economic activity. In that sense they look far more like technology platforms than like gold.

If Bitcoin is the monetary base layer then Layer 1 networks are the operating systems.

Apple built iOS and people built applications on top of it. Many of those applications became billion dollar businesses. In other words, Apple built the base layer operating system that enabled massive economic productivity. It did not just have phones that connected to the internet.

In a similar way L1s share this structure. Solana has built the operating system and applications are built on top of it. It creates economic value and value accrues to the network because of that.

As crypto matures the market will begin to price that distinction more clearly.

The question is not whether Bitcoin survives.

The question is where the next decade of asymmetry resides.

To understand that we need to look at history.

The 2000–2008 Parallel

There is a strong structural parallel between gold versus technology stocks after the dot com bust and Bitcoin versus altcoins after the 2021 bust.

From 2000 to 2008 gold entered a powerful bull market. During that same period many leading technology stocks failed to make new highs. Amazon spent years rebuilding while gold surged.

You can see this time period of Gold over Amazon in the chart below.

Now look at crypto.

Since the 2022 lows Bitcoin has dramatically outperformed most altcoins. Many alts have failed to reclaim prior highs while BTC captured the dominant narrative.

This is not random. It mirrors what happens when capital flows toward the perceived monetary reserve asset during uncertain regimes and technological shifts.

But history also shows that once gold tops and enters a dormant period productive assets like businesses begin their strongest secular runs.

The same rotation that occurred between gold and tech stocks could very well occur between Bitcoin and productive crypto infrastructure.

And that shift often begins around the time institutional legitimacy peaks.

Institutional Adoption Marks Maturity Not Early Growth

Consider the gold ETF launch in 2004. Gold tripled into 2008 and then doubled again into 2011. After that it went nowhere for over a decade.

After the 2011 top it took another 15 year period to hit 5000 an ounce. Thats a long time for a 200% gain.

Institutional adoption did not mark the beginning of infinite upside. It marked maturity.

In a similar note BTC ETF debuted 20 years later in 2024 and shortly went up 157% by late 2025.

Now overlay the first 800 days of the gold ETF era with the first 800 days of the Bitcoin ETF era and the structure looks remarkably similar.

This does not mean Bitcoin collapses. It means the explosive early adoption phase is likely behind it.

Each Bitcoin cycle has produced diminishing percentage returns. That is not weakness. That is what maturation looks like.

Which brings us to the million dollar narrative.

The Diminishing Returns Problem

Can Bitcoin reach one million dollars someday? It’s not out of the question.

But time matters.

And when Michael Saylor, Grant Cardone, Scottie Pippen, and Eric Trump (to name a few) seem to think so, you might want to look the other way.

Bitcoin today trades near levels it traded five years ago.

And in gold terms, it’s trading at a relative value to where it was 10 years ago.

That alone should force investors to rethink the assumption that simply buying and holding btc for four year cycles guarantees exponential gains on these time horizons. It clearly is not the case.

When an asset achieves ETF approval, institutional custody, corporate balance sheet adoption, sovereign allocation, and the largest holders are telling you “its going to 1mm by 2030 guaranteed”, the narrative is largely complete and you can rest assured that its going to take a lot longer than anyone thinks.

So what is the next catalyst large enough to produce another ten fold move in five years?

That is the question most holders are not asking.

The Next Decade of Asymmetry

I am not saying Bitcoin fails. I am not saying it does not rise from here. It likely will.

What I am saying is that the structural edge is likely shifting.

Bitcoin may become the monetary reserve layer of crypto. Stable. Secure. Widely held.

But the real compounding is most likely to migrate to the productive infrastructure built on top of it for decades to come.

That is the macro inflection I see forming.

Just as gold tops historically ushered in long equity bull markets productive crypto assets may begin a multi year period of outperformance as Bitcoin transitions into a slower more mature role.

The market is not static. Regimes evolve.

Bitcoin becoming gold may be the greatest validation of its success.

But for investors seeking asymmetric returns over the next decade it may also mark the end of its most explosive era.

And the beginning of another.

That is our edge and the theme we will be covering in this outlook.

Going forward, we will be staying with this format for paid readers. No weekly noise or constant reactive commentary. Just high-probability monthly time windows distilled down from our macro framework and annual forecast.

We will lay out the key inflection points and moments where trend, sentiment, and liquidity are most likely to shift. Founding members will continue to get the weekly and daily execution framework, but this report is about timing. It’s about knowing when the market is most vulnerable to volatility.

And the data for March is undoubtedly signaling one of the most important months of the year.

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There is a growing belief that we are on the verge of a technological “Aipocalypse” and entering a world of mass unemployment, universal basic income, and entire industries will be rendered obsolete almost overnight.

As the AI trade spills beyond software into cybersecurity, logistics, trucking, and the broader economy, that fear has only intensified. The assumption is simple: as adoption spreads, human labor will no longer be needed.

I’m not going to overwhelm this argument with charts or data because it doesn’t require them. The answer is intuitive, historical, and grounded in something far more permanent than any quarterly report or productivity statistic. It’s grounded in physical law.

There are certain inescapable laws that govern reality whether we acknowledge them or not.

One of them is simple: energy cannot be created or destroyed, only transferred. That law does not stop applying because a new technology is released.

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Economies are systems of energy transfer. Labor is energy. Capital is stored energy. Production is energy transformed into goods and services.

You do not get output without input. You do not get something for nothing. Every product, every service, every innovation begins with energy, and in human systems that energy ultimately resolves through human coordination and effort.

Jobs are structured outlets for that energy. They are how human energy expresses itself inside the economic machine.

When people talk about AI “eliminating jobs,” what they are really suggesting is that energy will somehow vanish from the system. That is not how reality works. Energy does not disappear because technology improves. It reallocates.

Every major technological breakthrough in history triggered the exact same panic. The printing press. The steam engine. Electricity. Computers. And the internet were all going to collapse entire industries.

The reality was in every case, certain roles were disrupted. But total labor did not disappear. Productivity expanded, output increased, and entirely new fields were born. The workforce did not simply evaporate overnight but rather it transferred its energy elsewhere.

AI will not break that pattern, it will follow it.

The common rebuttal is that this time is different because artificial intelligence can “do everything,” and therefore universal basic income will become necessary because humans simply won’t be needed.

This argument ignores something even more powerful than technology, human nature.

Work is not just about income. These are not just “tasks’’ that the experts would have you believe.

For most people, work provides identity, structure, direction, social connection, and purpose. Remove that entirely and you do not create a stable society full of fulfilled individuals. You create drift.

Most people are not self-directed. They do not wake up every day with perfectly organized intrinsic motivation and long-term vision. They rely on structure. They rely on responsibility. They rely on expectations. That’s not a bad thing, its simply how social systems function.

People already have the option, in many cases, to opt out of a job and collect unemployment benefits. Yet most choose not to detach from structure because even individuals who dislike their jobs often prefer that discomfort over complete aimlessness.

Idle time does not magically produce fullfillment. It more often produces stagnation and a hell, worse than going to a job you hate.

The idea that hundreds of millions of people will happily detach from economic participation because a machine can perform certain cognitive tasks ignores centuries of observable behavior.

Societies require structure to maintain order.

Economies require participation to sustain themselves.

A world in which no one works is not some enlightened equilibrium. It is instability. The idea that leaders, institutions, and economic systems would intentionally dissolve the primary structures that keep societies functional is completely detached from reality.

Now circling this back to AI itself.

Even if certain roles are automated, the energy behind them does not vanish. By law it cant.

Companies adopting AI will not press a button and delete their workforce. Instead its more likely, they will hire specialists to integrate systems, engineers to build infrastructure, teams to manage data, operators to maintain hardware, and experts to optimize performance.

This requires expanding power usage, building data centers, manufacturing chips, upgrading networks, and redesigning processes.

Old roles will contract while new roles expand yet net energy will remain in motion.

AI is far closer to the discovery of electricity than it is to any economic apocalypse. Electricity did not make the world obsolete. It enhanced it. It was energy that was always there it just needed to be captured by the correct mechanism to be used.

It permeated nearly every industry and made existing systems more productive. But it required power plants, transmission lines, transformers, wiring, manufacturing expansion, and maintenance.

Entire industries were created around supporting that one breakthrough. Cars, factories, homes, and machines did not disappear in the face of electricity. They incorporated it and became better.

Similarly intelligence has always been here we are simply capturing it in a new mechanism to be directed towards new systems.

AI is intelligence being digitized and scaled.

That scaling requires semiconductor fabrication, rare earth extraction, advanced manufacturing, cooling systems, energy grid expansion, software development, cybersecurity, and regulatory oversight.

None of that materializes without labor.

You cannot automate thermodynamics. If demand for AI explodes, the physical world must expand to support it, and physical expansion requires coordinated human effort.

Look around at the real economy. Most small businesses are barely digital even now.

Many large corporations operate on legacy systems decades old. Adoption curves are always slower and more complex than the so called experts suggest.

There are still physical bank tellers despite online banking existing for years. Transitions are gradual. Infrastructure need to catch up. And ultimately humans prefer hybrid systems. Technological shifts unfold over time, not in a single catastrophic wave.

The deeper mistake in the AI apocalypse narrative is the assumption that this innovation somehow overrides universal laws.

It does not. You cannot get something for nothing. If AI creates value, someone must design it, build it, power it, maintain it, improve it, regulate it, and integrate it. That requires energy. And in an economy, energy ultimately manifests through structured human action.

No revolutionary technology in history has permanently rendered half the workforce irrelevant. Not because humans resist change, but because economies adapt. Labor reallocates. Productivity rises. Output expands. New industries emerge. Human beings evolve alongside their tools rather than surrender to them.

If you want to bet that this time the laws governing energy, behavior, and economic structure simply stop applying, you can. I will take the other side.

AI will make systems faster, more efficient, and more intelligent. It will enhance productivity across industries. It will disrupt roles and create new ones. What it will not do is eliminate the need for human energy inside the economic machine.

History is clear. Physics are clear. Human nature is clear.

Jobs will not disappear from the economy because its the law.

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Back on February 3rd, I said this mid-to-late February period would be pivotal. Now we’re here — and the cycles, conditions, and timing are starting to align.

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90-Day Cycle + 180-Day Inflection

Ethereum is sitting right at a 90-day cycle inflection —

• The November low came precisely on a 90-day turn.

• Fast forward another 90 days, and we land in this February 19–23 window.

• We’re also hitting a 180-degree time factor from the August top.

That gives us cycle alignment for a quarterly low

Now we look for confirmation in conditions.

Divergences Are Building Across the Board

Across multiple key charts we’re seeing what we want to see at a potential reversal:

• ETH dominance showing bullish divergence.

• ETH/BTC flashing exhaustion signals.

• Bitcoin dominance rolling over with weekly bearish divergence.

• Others vs BTC hitting major resistance with daily divergence.

• Others vs ETH tapping the 50% expansion zone that historically ignites high-risk rallies.

This is not one isolated signal but a market wide confluence.

And when time + conditions + divergence line up, that’s when moves begin.

The “Zone” That Ignites Explosive Moves

There’s a specific zone on the Others vs ETH chart that has triggered every major high-risk expansion since 2021.

Each time we enter that zone:

• Small caps explode.

• On-chain activity surges.

• Meme and AI tokens go vertical.

We just tapped that zone again.

And historically, the real move tends to begin in the last week of February.

Historical Pattern: Late February → March Expansion

Looking back at prior cycles:

• SHIB (2021) bottomed late February → massive spring expansion.

• WIF / Solana ecosystem (2024) ignited late February → explosive March rally.

• PEPE (2024) launched its major leg right in this window.

The pattern is consistent:

1. Early-year spike.

2. Sharp correction.

3. Late-February bottom.

4. Violent move into March/April.

Right now, many AI and meme coins have:

• Already had their January expansion.

• Corrected 70–90%.

• completing consolidation.

That’s structurally similar to prior expansion phases.

Risk-On Barometers Are Turning

Even outside crypto:

• GME showing bullish divergence.

• High-beta equities starting to base.

• Sentiment extremely bearish.

• Four-year-cycle collapse narratives everywhere.

When bearishness gets crowded into a key time window, that provides fuel

What This Means

We have:

• 90-day and 180-degree cycle alignment

• Weekly and daily divergences

• Historical seasonal precedent

• Structural rotation signals

• Extreme sentiment

That doesn’t guarantee outcome. But it does signal preparation.

The next 7–10 days are likely a bottoming process in high-risk names. And historically, when this window resolves to the upside, the move into April can be fast and aggressive.

Not a year-long rally.

But a sharp, high-beta expansion phase.

Bottom Line

Cycles are aligned.
Conditions are being met.
Timing is here.

Now we watch execution.

If this follows prior structure, the next 10 days you’ll want to be paying attention

When these windows hit, the move doesn’t wait.

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