Q2 Outlook and Roadmap

If you only understand one thing about this market right now, it’s this:

We are now entering the most important time window of the year.

Not approaching it.

Entering it.

Since December, I’ve been laying out the roadmap for Q2—April, May, June—as the phase that would dictate everything that follows. And now the time is here. Not one or two… but clusters of major time factors stacking on top of each other.

These are the kind of moves that can define and entire year in one quarter.

And those turns don’t come gradually—they come through sharp reversals, failed moves, and aggressive rotations that leave most people on the wrong side.

If you don’t understand the timing behind those shifts, you won’t be able to navigate this quarter effectively

You’ll react to it and by then the news will already be priced in.

Below is the exact Q2 timing roadmap—every key date, every major window, and how I expect this to unfold.

April

I’m not going to beat a dead horse on April we have been very vocal about this being a big rebound month and if you want to go back and look at why we said this exact time window of the 4-7th for a major reversal look back at this post.

That said its only the beginning of the month and if we are in for a sort of whipsaw quarter we need to know the next most likely candidate for a reversal off of a rebound.

We already know that Trump issued an ultimatum of 48hrs to Iran 10 days ago and then for whatever reason extended it to April 7. Coincidence? I don’t know but these things always have a way of calling out the major timing of key news events.

Below is a table of key Monthly, Weekly and Daily time cycles that fall in April.

Right off the bat you can see that this month has a number of major monthly times including the all important 60 month time factor from a top which has historically brought in major bottoms. We can also see that 1/2 time of that move (30 months) also brought a major turn to the market. And then the 1/4 time of that move (15 months) also produced a significant monthly turn.

So when you have a clean cycle like the major 60 month cycle and you can divide it up into smaller cycles and each of those smaller cycles also produces a turn you have a strong cycle for a turn.

As for the weekly time factors there are not a lot of major ones here other than that last week of April which I will get more into for May because its really the weekly time factor that comes in the last week of April and first week of May that interests me the most this quarter.

Then looking at the daily time factors for April we know we are right now in the biggest window because it is 180 days off the top among other things we have discussed, but also the date of April 7th puts us 60 days off the February low which produced a low 30 days later in March. So you again have a very high probability Low in the works right now. Which may in fact be a quarterly low and possibly even a yearly bottom.

Lastly we have important anniversary dates in this exact time factor.

Going back the last five years in a row the market has made a major turn around the beginning of April without fail.

The key take away we have going into q2 is that we know the major turns from q1 now that its over. The two major dates were January 14th a quarterly top and February 6th a quarterly bottom.

Now that we know those we can measure our year out in 90 and 120 degree cycles to give us strong points for quarterly highs and lows in q2, q3, and q4.

That first date we get is April 14th which is 90 days from the high of q1. That will be a date to watch for a potential high although I don’t see too much significance around it.

To look for a more serious high we need to observe the time in May

May Time Factors

The time factors for May are of no lesser importance of emphasis.

As I said once we get into q2 it would be a very tough one to call because so many key dates appear in such quick succession.

That said lets look into the May time factors in the table below.

From a monthly standpoint the all important 50 month time factor stands out as we highlighted this in our annual forecast.

Historically the 50 month cycle has resulted in serious monthly declines and really the beginning of bear markets.

Next turning to the weekly dates we can immediately see that the first week of May stands out. Remember its the last week of April and first week of May we have discussed at length.

You can see in the chart below that every 30 week time factor since the ETF has fallen right at or near a major turn. The next 30 weeks from the top puts us in that last week of April first week of May.

In addition to that we have another major weekly time factor at that exact time which is the 180 week time from the 2022 bottom. You can see below how dividing this time factor up into 45 week intervals has proven to put us around major turns.

Lastly as we zoom into the daily time factors it’s clear the first few days of May will set the tone for the month.

Not only do you have the key weekly signals hitting on that week, but there is a seasonal time May 6 which marks the midpoint of the spring season.

This all falls on May 4-7 which is 210 days from the top as well as 90 degrees from the low of Q1.

Then measuring from the high of Q1 we get 120 degrees on May 14th to watch.

and lastly we have to talk about the last week of May first week of June which I’ll tie together in June.

June Time Factors

If you go back to our annual report you’ll remember our major point of emphasis for the entire year was the last week of May and first week of June.

So looking at the table below lets see how the dates line up.

First of all a lot of major monthly time factors coming together that should tell you its a big month and in my view if the yearly low is not already in it will be in June.

Then moving to the weekly you have that first week of June bringing together the all important 60 month and 60 week time factor which I have seen be so important over the years. You will also notice how that lines up with a daily time factor from the quarterly low in Q1 which came in feb 4th 120 days from the October top or exactly half way point to June 3rd.

Complete Q2 Outlook:

April 19-24th is a high

May 4-7 is a low

May 14th is a high

May 26-June 6 is a low

This is the type of quarter where everything we work for comes together. Time, price, sentiment—all of it.

Outside of the big slide in January, Q1 was very uneventful. That changes now. I expect some big moves in both directions with headlines and tensions flying.

We now have a clear roadmap for Q2. The key windows have been defined by our Q4 and Q1 turns and the structure is in place.

From here, it’s no longer about figuring out what’s happening. It’s about sticking to our plan and executing trades. Because over the next 60–90 days, a handful of decisions could matter more than anything else we do this year.

Make sure you’re on the right side of them.