The Rotation from Tech to Financials
Tech is exhausted, XLF has built an 18-month base, and big finance is sitting at the epicenter of two major tech waves. This is the shift driving the next major market move.
The rotation from technology to financials just started — and it’s going to bring the next major influx of capital to the crypto market.
All year, people have complained that crypto is going nowhere and underperforming everything. But pull up the XLF financial ETF and you’ll see the exact same story across the entire financial sector. Crypto isn’t the outlier. It’s moving in lockstep with the rest of finance.
For years people have tried to compare the crypto sector to a software ETF or the Nasdaq. Let’s call it what it actually is: financial technology. Once you look at crypto through that lens, you can draw far better conclusions about what’s happening, why, and when it changes.
Start with the XLF.
It's traded essentially nowhere since November 2024 — almost completely flat.
Now overlay BTC price action from the 2022 low, and you'll see a close correlation with the financial sector. There are deviations, but the pattern holds: when XLF is in a big bull trend, so is crypto. And when XLF struggles so does crypto.
It's no wonder crypto has struggled since late 2024 — the entire financial sector has been struggling right alongside it.
