Everything is in alignment for the most important turning point in this market since the May top.
I know I might be sounding like a broken record this month but in hindsight you will see why.
The time factors in May produced the last serious turn in this market. Ever since then the volatility and volume have been slowly grinding to a halt. I’m not going to promise that changes tomorrow. Markets can stay dull longer than most people have the patience to stand.
But what I will say is that the data is very clearly telling us that we are in a time window that will be looked back on as a moment of significant change. Whether that change be immediate or more subtle is something only history will reveal.
The timing is here. Now let’s look at what the cycles are telling us.
Bitcoin: Six Months of Time Capitulation
It’s been a long year if your a bitcoin holder. In fact over the last 6 months bitcoin has gone virtually no where. It’s trading at the same price it was near the low of the February crash.
On one hand that’s brutally boring as a trader or investor. On the other hand it tells us bitcoin has had 6 months to fall apart below 60k and it just won’t do it.
But perhaps the most interesting thing about this price action is the similarities it holds with the 2022 bottom. When we take today’s chart and look at it over the 2022 BTC price action, you see nearly the same behavior over the same time frame.
This is time capitulation at its finest. Six months of price action chopping traders to bits, getting long term investors frustrated, making low conviction holders capitulate, and forcing over leveraged buyers into selling.
As we know, once the time is satisfied the market will begin to move up.
And right now bitcoin’s time cycles are the first clear read on this market beginning to change.
Take a look at the chart below. This chart shows each 15 week time cycle of IBIT since its inception. Roughly every 15 weeks is a change in trend. The last 15 week cycle gave us the exact May 6th top. The next one starts now.
This next chart shows the same cycle perhaps in a more clear view with arrows pointing to each 15 week inflection point rather than the lines. Again, notice the last 3 arrows all produced the major weekly tops before big declines. Here, we are again ready for a big turn.
The important thing to note is that all these events are related in time. We can go back 60, 90, and 180 weeks and you will see the major changes produced in the weekly cycle. This time will be no different and for that we will look to ETH.
Ethereum: The Cycle Turns
A few weeks back I reminded you of the very strong 36 week cycle in ETH. That cycle begins again this week and suggests to us that the bulls will be resuming control until the end of the year.
In addition to the 36 week bottom cycle, this week brings about the anniversary of the top last year in ETH which came in on August 24th.
This also coincides with two other major time factors on this chart.
180 weeks ago was the SVB banking crisis. Which in my view was truly the confirmation of a bull market in bitcoin and the exact date we declared the bull market beginning over 3 years ago.
90 weeks ago was the 2024 top in ETH. Another major moment in the market that only in hindsight was realized as the final top in alt coins over 600 days ago.
Between ETH’s top one year ago, the SVB panic 180 weeks ago, the 2024 top 90 weeks prior, and the 36 week cycle, its pretty safe to bet that these cycles are among the strongest and most important cycles working on this market over the entire last 4 years and they’re aligned again right now.
Altcoins: The Breakout
Finally take a look at the alt coin market.
The first and most important thing to note on the weekly chart is that we have just broken out of a 4 year downtrend and successfully retested it.
This is happening exactly 60 weeks off the low indicated by the green arrows. The arrow in the middle shows the 30 week midpoint. Meaning, we are seeing lows on this chart on the 30 week time factors since the June low in alt coins in June 2025.
This 60 week cycle is in alignment with the 60 months cycle. The wheel within the wheel. Remember we covered the below chart back in April talking about how strong the 60 month cycle is for alts.
Both 60 and 120 months ago you got serious monthly turns as indicated by the green and red arrows. We are due for a 60 month reversal and its coming on both a backtest of a breakout and a 60 week low.
Additionally, lets remind ourselves of the seasonality alts have had over the last 4 years in this August/September time window.
2022 gave us a major monthly top in August
2023 gave us a major low in late August/early September
2024 gave us a major low in August
2025 gave us a major top in August.
Are you seeing the pattern? It’s difficult to ignore given the time factors and seasonality lining up all in one go.
Bitcoin Dominance: Decision Time
Lastly, I want to drive the point home with BTC.d. I finished last week talking about what we want to see with this but now lets look at the timing.
Again, 60 weeks ago was the top that set off the 2025 alt coin bounce into August. 90 weeks ago was the great squeeze of 2024 where alts and meme coins went parabolic over a very short time span. And 180 weeks ago kicked off the big bull trend in this chart. Important to note that each of these moments ignited big moves on chain.
The Cycles Are Aligning
Bringing it all together the message is clear. The timing relationships we are looking at over the next two weeks are in alignment with some of the most important moments of the last four years.
Beginning with the SVB banking crisis which kicked off the bull market, going through ETH’s top at this time last year and then aligning with seasonal and cyclical major turns in alt coins it is very clear something is about to happen that should not be taken lightly.
The market has gone nowhere in over 6 months, interest in near all time lows, volatility and volume are near all time lows yet price has been unable to collapse in the face of an onslaught of negative headlines in recent weeks.
Whether this window produces an event that rapidly vacuums capital back into the market or whether it slowly creeps back in is hard to say. But time says its coming one way or another and this month will surely be looked back upon as a key turning point of 2026.
Time is the edge.