A few days overdue on a full update for paid subscribers (founding members have been getting this live in the chat), but here’s where I’m sitting on Bitcoin and Ethereum as we head into the back half of May.
Bitcoin: The Plan Is Still The Plan
I don’t see a huge sell-off coming. The April 7th low remains the key level to hold, and the structure here has too many time cycles converging to ignore:
- **~100 days into this rally** from the November low
- **50 days from the March 29th low** (the yearly low) — right at the midpoint of that 100-day cycle
- **180 days from the November bottom**
That’s a lot of time symmetry stacking up in one window.
My base case hasn’t changed since the Q2 outlook went out in early April: we got the mid-May top, and now we’re looking at the potential for one more flush into **May 26–28** before a much larger move kicks off into June. Sixty days off that March bottom lines up perfectly with that window.
What I’m watching: sentiment is *extremely* fragile right now. People got fearful on a 2% pullback. Now that we’re getting a little more, the “I told you so, four-year cycle” crowd is piling out and piling into shorts. That’s exactly the setup that squeezes hard to the upside.
We’ve seen this movie before. The Bitcoin ETF and the Stablecoin Genius Act both gave us two-week reversals before even bigger bull trends started. The Clarity Act is shaping up the same way.
Ethereum: This Is The Long
ETH is where the real risk/reward sits right now.
Ethereum topped *before* Bitcoin back in August, and we’re now closing in on **270 days from that top** — a clean 90-degree cycle. Go back 180 days, you hit a bottom. Go back 90 days, another bottom. That cycle is aligning with:
- The 50-day and 100-day cycle lows we just discussed for BTC
- A 30-day correction that’s looking complete (wave 1, wave 2, panic wave 3 down)
- The April 7th level — ETH is sitting right on it
- A major macro red-box absorption zone that’s been hit repeatedly through this cycle
- The 50% retracement line at the top of that red box
Everything is hitting at once. Oversold, trendline support, multiple cycle lows, major macro level. That’s the checklist for a reversal.
You can already see relative strength showing up: Bitcoin’s down, ETH is up. ETH dominance is pivoting at its own 270-day cycle, and Bitcoin dominance is rolling over off a four-day reversal at 240 days from its bottom.
The weekly chart on ETH/BTC tells the same story — same setup as the prior bottom: big resistance, break through, full retest, then go. We’re at the retest.
