I took some time off last week off — great timing, because the market fell out of bed while I was gone. But coming back to these charts, I don’t know what everyone’s panicking about. This is clearly an opportunity, and it’s exactly why most people never do anything with the opportunities they’re given.
So let me keep this simple. A little ranting this week, but here’s the deal.
The Date We Called Six Months Ago
We outlined this time factor back in December. I’m not here to beat a dead horse — anyone following us knows we said June 3rd was the most important date of the year, and we said it six months ago. Here we are. I think the low came in on the 5th. Nothing has changed.
People love to panic. They love to think the sky is falling at moments like this. But this is our bread and butter — being able to act calmly and rationally with a plan while everyone else is screaming that it’s all over.
Was I wrong on my most recent Bitcoin view? Yes, I thought the bottom was in and it would keep going up. However, I did highlight the risks repeatedly — I said a low of the quarter was coming in June, though I expected a higher low. We got a slightly lower low instead. But the way people are acting is ridiculous.
I’ll Say It: This Is The Bottom
I see a lot of people saying “now we know it’s the four-year cycle, the market’s going down, it’s November, I’ll just DCA lower.” Nonsense. I’m going to say it right here: this is the bottom. It just happened — in Bitcoin, and just Bitcoin.
And here’s the other point. Everyone’s been whining about crypto all year, but there have been a lot of bullish moves — Hype, Near, Zcash, the list goes on. There’s a bull market here. This is exactly what we’ve been calling since January/February: the risk-on trade was shaping up, and sure enough it has been, despite all the doom and gloom.
It goes back to the phrase: watch what’s actually happening, not what you think should happen.
The Timing: Every Degree Is Hitting
Let me just show you the time on the monthly Bitcoin chart. You’ve got a double bottom — and forget the price, look at the time symmetry stacking up. This is time by degrees:
30 months ago — the ETF bottom (Dec/Jan)
60 months ago — June 2021, the major panic bottom, 50% drawdown, everything crashed
75 months ago — COVID panic (half of 150)
90 months ago — December 2018 bottom
120 months ago — June 2016 top, big two-month reversal
150 months ago — December 2013 major top
180 months ago — another major top
Every single monthly time-by-degree going all the way back to the start of this chart has hit and reversed the market. That’s exactly what we’re getting now. I don’t think I’ve ever seen quite literally every single monthly time factor align with one month like this.
Zoom into the weekly and it’s the same story:
60 weeks ago — panic bottom, market trading at 60K — time and price squaring
120 days ago — the February bottom (the 120-degree time factor laid out in the annual forecast)
240 days from the top
180–182 weeks to the prior bottom (three and a half years), plus major support all the way through
The 120-degree dates to watch were February 3rd and June 3rd. Both hit. This is unquestionably a reversal bottom.
What We’ve Been Saying All Year
Everything we’ve been watching this year has been playing out. We’ve been trading a bear move — not a ton of upside, but some phenomenal calls in a very tough environment. Remind yourself what we’ve actually been saying:
End of May / early June is the biggest time factor of the year
Alts and the risk-on trade will outperform Bitcoin
Bitcoin is done — you need to be in altcoins
The Q2 outlook from April → May → June played out to the tick, to the day
Don’t get caught up in the hysteria that crypto’s dead. This is a better opportunity than 2022, because in 2022 we never actually got an altcoin bull market. Now we’re going to have altcoin outperformance for a very long time — likely through the end of 2027.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin is bottomed. (Foundry members already have the next important date in the signal report.)
This is going to be a good summer for those who are vigilant. The people who checked out all year due to the four-year cycle missed Zcash, missed Near, missed Hype — they missed huge moves. Stop letting Bitcoin drag this market down. Crypto is not Bitcoin. It’s a totally different asset with totally different use, and that’s what’s going to start being priced in with the Clarity Act, stablecoin adoption, and everything else coming.
This is going to be an ugly fake-out for bears — barely sweep the lows, take the lows, then start going higher while everyone’s still waiting to buy lower and calling for Armageddon. It’s not going to cascade into Armageddon. This is the bottom.
I’ll own it — I was wrong about Bitcoin having an explosive upside move. It had an explosive move, just in the direction I’d flagged as the downside risk. But this is a macro bottoming process that started back in February. From here, bitcoin underperforms, alts way outperform, and the real opportunities — altcoins, meme coins, and on chain small caps — have extraordinary weeks and months ahead.
Ask yourself: what’s the market going to look like six months from now? Twelve months from now? That’s how you should be thinking.
When you have a plan, and it works step-for-step, you don’t abandon it because you got emotional. Our annual forecast has been right step-for-step — not directionally, but from a timing standpoint, which matters more. When you get this much emotion, this bad sentiment, on a key date, with this ugly-looking price, you get a major reversal.
Keep your head about you, stick to the plan, and everything’s going to go beautifully.
Time is the edge.
