Quick look ahead after last night’s weekly and monthly close. The market’s making a slightly lower low today, so I’m zooming out — because we’re right on top of that time factor we’ve been tracking for months.
The Timing: This Is The Window
The Q2 outlook called for a low between the 28th and the 6th, and that’s exactly the zone the market is grinding through right now. The cycles converging here are hard to ignore:
~240 days from the October top (within two days now)
Balancing against the February low — the bottom that came in 120 days later
60 days from the April 7th bottom
Sixty weeks from that April 2025 bottom, which also lines up as 60 months from the June 2021 monthly low
A lot of time symmetry stacking into one window. We’re still holding above the 50% retracement of the run (~71,473) and haven’t closed below the key 1x1 level — which is what we want to see hold. I’m looking at the end of this week to bring in a significant low.
Bitcoin: I Don’t Love It, But The Plan Holds
I’ll be honest about the negatives, because two things I didn’t want to see both happened: Bitcoin closed three weeks red, and last month’s monthly closed red with a reversal after only two months up. That’s not what you see in a strong uptrend.
Volatility is extremely low right now — and low volatility is just a forecast for high volatility. The market is doing everything it can to put everyone in a state of uncertainty.
I’ve been wrong on the timing of a big impulse move. But I’m now firmly in the camp that there’s still a squeeze coming in June — much like the June 2023 bottom that ripped higher. I think we still see that 84–90K level off a June low in the next few days. Beyond that, my base case is a low-volume, low-volatility, mostly range-bound market into the fall low, then a much stronger market taking shape into 2027.
This is a 2023-style environment — before the full re-acceptance of crypto as a thing. These two fractals (the 60-week cycles from 2023 and 2024–25) suggest a long year to get to the fall.
